Politics prediction markets
Live odds on elections, legislation and world leaders, set by traders on Polymarket.
Open PolydictTop politics markets by 24h volume
Polymarket odds as of Sep 25, 10:04 PM UTC
- 1
Democratic Presidential Nominee 202818%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - 2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?1%Yes - 3
Presidential Election Winner 202821%JD Vance - 4
Next French Presidential Election38%Marine Le Pen - 5
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?80%March 31 - 6
Brazil Presidential Election56%Flávio Bolsonaro - 7
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?>99%September 25 - 8
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14%Yes - 9Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?28%Yes
- 10
Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?23%180-199 - 11Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?30%180-199
- 12Elon Musk # tweets September 24 - September 26, 2026?87%40-64
- 13
Iran leadership change by...?23%June 30, 2027 - 14
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?67%October 31 - 15
Putin out as President of Russia by...?12%June 30, 2027 - 16
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?53%Gadi Eizenkot - 17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?4%December 31 - 18
Trump out as President by September 30?<1%Yes - 19
Maine Senate Election Winner67%Troy Jackson (D) - 20
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms64%Democrats Sweep - 21
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 18 - September 25, 2026?98%100-119 - 22
Trump renames AI by...?72%December 31 - 23
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?<1%Yes - 24
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?71%China - 25
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 202615%Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms - 26
Republican Presidential Nominee 202851%J.D. Vance - 27
Israeli Legislative Election Winner59%Yashar - 28
California Governor Election Winner95%Xavier Becerra - 29Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?11%Yes
- 30
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?7%Yes - 31Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place75%Flávio Bolsonaro
- 32
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?57%Aleksandar Vučić - 33
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?8%Yes - 34
Los Angeles Mayoral Election57%Nithya Raman - 35
Which party will win the House in 2026?93%Democratic Party - 36
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?99%2–6s - 37
Next Prime Minister of Sweden87%Magdalena Andersson - 38
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?12%October 31 - 39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?19%December 31 - 40
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?11%December 31, 2026
How prediction market odds work
Each market asks a question about a future event. Shares trade between $0 and $1, so a price of 64¢ reads as a 64% chance. If the outcome you hold happens, each share pays $1; if not, it pays nothing. Markets resolve by the rules and resolution source on Polymarket. More in the FAQ.