Middle East prediction markets
Live odds on events across the Middle East, set by traders on Polymarket.
Open PolydictTop middle east markets by 24h volume
Polymarket odds as of Sep 25, 10:04 PM UTC
- 1
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?>99%September 25 - 2
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14%Yes - 3
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?13%December 31 - 4
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?53%Gadi Eizenkot - 5
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?7%Yes - 6
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?8%December 31 - 7
Iran leader end of 2026?88%Mojtaba Khamenei - 8
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?1%Yes - 9
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?>99%September 22 - 10
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?19%December 31 - 11
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?4%Yes - 12
USD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes)91%2.2 to 2.5M - 13
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?99%September 25 - 14
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?23%December 31 - 15USD x Iranian rials End of December?38%2.0 - 2.5M
- 16
Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?16%October 31 - 17
Iran Nuke before 2027?5%Yes - 18
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?11%Lebanon - 19
Will Iran target Iraq by...?21%October 31 - 20NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?3%Yes
- 21
Iran coup attempt by...?11%Yes - 22
Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?12%Oman - 23
Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?23%December 31 - 24USD x Iranian rials End of September?97%2.2M+
- 25
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?8%Lebanon - 26Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?14%December 31
- 27France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?15%December 31
- 28 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?12%Yes
- 29
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?43%October 31 - 30Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?88%September 23
- 31
Will Iran target Oman by...?5%October 31 - 32
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?27%October 31 - 33
Israel Election: Together # of seats?32%11-13 - 34
Netanyahu out by...?46%Yes - 35
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?56%October 31 - 36
Will Iran target Jordan by...?63%October 31 - 37Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?56%September 30
- 38
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?8%Yes - 39
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?20%December 31 - 40
Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?31%8-9
How prediction market odds work
Each market asks a question about a future event. Shares trade between $0 and $1, so a price of 64¢ reads as a 64% chance. If the outcome you hold happens, each share pays $1; if not, it pays nothing. Markets resolve by the rules and resolution source on Polymarket. More in the FAQ.