Economy prediction markets
Live odds on central banks, inflation and the economy, set by traders on Polymarket.
Open PolydictTop economy markets by 24h volume
Polymarket odds as of Sep 25, 10:04 PM UTC
- 1
Fed Decision in October?63%25 bps increase - 2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?28%Yes - 3
US recession by end of 2026?11%Yes - 4
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?96%0 (0 bps) - 5Fed Decision in December?70%25 bps increase
- 6
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?91%5.2% - 7
Largest Company end of September?99%NVIDIA - 8
Bank of England decision in November?81%25 bps increase - 9
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?4%Yes - 10Largest Company end of December 2026?75%NVIDIA
- 11No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by...?54%October 15
- 12
Brazil Annual Inflation 202646%5.00-5.49% - 13
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September98%25 bps increase - 14
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?91%Yes - 15
Bank of Japan Decision in October?76%No change - 163rd Largest Company end of September?98%Alphabet
- 17
ECB Interest Rates: October 202668%No change - 18How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?78%5.50%
- 19
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?71%No change - 20How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?93%5.50%
- 21
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?38%Below 4.50% - 22
Argentina Annual Inflation 202650%30.0-34.9% - 23How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?25%Below 4.7%
- 242nd Largest Company end of September?98%Apple
- 25
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 202671%2.0-2.4% - 26
USD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes)91%2.2 to 2.5M - 27
Bank of Canada Decision in October?58%No Change - 28
Which companies will the US take a stake in?54%Unusual Machines - 29
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)43%Hike–Hike–Hike - 30
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?62%25 bps increase - 31
Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?40%2.5-3.0% - 32How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?80%5.20%
- 33
September Inflation US - Monthly42%0.6% - 34
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?11%Yes - 35
What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?80%$524K - $530K - 36
Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30?52%$900B-$1.00T - 373rd Largest Company end of December 2026?59%Alphabet
- 38USD x Iranian rials End of December?38%2.0 - 2.5M
- 39What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?54%$335K - $340K
- 40
Swiss National Bank decision in December?68%No Change
How prediction market odds work
Each market asks a question about a future event. Shares trade between $0 and $1, so a price of 64¢ reads as a 64% chance. If the outcome you hold happens, each share pays $1; if not, it pays nothing. Markets resolve by the rules and resolution source on Polymarket. More in the FAQ.