World prediction markets
Live odds on world events and geopolitics, set by traders on Polymarket.
Open PolydictTop world markets by 24h volume
Polymarket odds as of Sep 25, 10:04 PM UTC
- 1
Next French Presidential Election38%Marine Le Pen - 2
Brazil Presidential Election56%Flávio Bolsonaro - 3
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14%Yes - 4
Putin out as President of Russia by...?12%June 30, 2027 - 5
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?53%Gadi Eizenkot - 6
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?<1%Yes - 7
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?71%China - 8
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 202615%Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms - 9
NATO x Russia military clash by...?30%December 31 - 10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?7%Yes - 11Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place75%Flávio Bolsonaro
- 12
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?8%Yes - 13
Next Prime Minister of Sweden87%Magdalena Andersson - 14
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?11%December 31, 2026 - 15Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory61%Lula da Silva <5%
- 16Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%Yes
- 17
Xi Jinping out before 2027?4%Yes - 18
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?93%No meeting before 2027 - 19Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place46%Renan Santos
- 20
Iran leader end of 2026?88%Mojtaba Khamenei - 21
Bulgaria Presidential Election74%Iliana Iotova - 22
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?4%Yes - 23
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?41%4-6% - 24
New pandemic in 2026?5%Yes - 25
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?4%Yes - 26
Brazil Annual Inflation 202646%5.00-5.49% - 27
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September98%25 bps increase - 28
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?77%Vladimir Putin - 29
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?11%June 30, 2027 - 30
Quebec General Election Winner93%PQ - 31
Bank of Japan Decision in October?76%No change - 32
Russia military action against EU country by...?16%December 31 - 33Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won90%PL
- 34
Argentina Annual Inflation 202650%30.0-34.9% - 35Lula or Bolsonaro favored on...?88%Bolsonaro
- 36
Nothing Ever Happens: 202683%Yes - 37
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?4%Yes - 38
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?53%44%+ - 39
Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly Election Winner86%Isabelle Blais - 40Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner84%Alexandre Leduc
How prediction market odds work
Each market asks a question about a future event. Shares trade between $0 and $1, so a price of 64¢ reads as a 64% chance. If the outcome you hold happens, each share pays $1; if not, it pays nothing. Markets resolve by the rules and resolution source on Polymarket. More in the FAQ.